Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
